The French presidential election is the most important political event of 2017 because of its implications on the future narrative of EU after the populism of 2016, according to a debate by Dr Françoise Boucek, Professor Sara Hobolt, Professor Christian Lequesne and John Peet at the LSE’s public event on March 14th.
Boucek, Lecturer in European Politics at Queen Mary University, and Lequesne, Professor of European Politics at Sciences Po since 1988, discussed the candidates and the electorate. Hobolt, the Sutherland Chair in European Institutions at the European Institute, and Peet, Europe editor for The Economist, focused on its implications for EU and Brexit.
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| From left to right: John Peet, Sara Hobolt, Christian Lequesne and Françoise Boucek |
“The state of uncertainty regarding this election is probably one of the highest in the history of the French Republic. We are unable to predict the outcome of this election, whose first round will be held on April 23rd,“ said Lequesne.
Citizens are themselves very unsure, except those who have decided to vote for the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Only 51% of the French electorate decided to vote for a mainstream candidate, while the 49% of voters are still hesitant.
“In 2016 400 farmers committed suicide because of the agricultural industry crisis, something that is not reported in the press very well. Who will the French farmers vote for in the presidential election next month? Polls suggest that Le Pen will get the 45% of these votes. Unemployment and disconnection are the big themes of this race,” claimed Boucek.
In the second round of the election on May 7th, there will be a cleavage between two parts of the French society, those who support a liberal and globalised program and those who support a nationalist and anti-global program in contrast to the traditional opposition between right and left parties.
“In presidential election people usually express their wish in the first round, while in the second they try to express a useful vote. This time probably people will try to use their useful vote in the first round,” continued Lequesne.
In this presidential election the two mainstream candidates, the social liberal Macron and the right nationalist Le Pen, come from outside the tradition of mainstream parties.
“There are good chances that they will compete in the second round, but this not sure at all. Fillon for The Republicans and Hamon for The Socialist Party still have the possibility to get to the second round. But Fillon has to deal with financial scandals, while Hamon with legitimacy in his party,” Boucek commented.
Whoever wins the presidential election needs to win the majority in the parliamentary election in June to get policies, reforms, and referendum done.
The choice of the French citizens will have very different consequences on EU. “If Le Pen wins, there will be no relaunch of the EU and of the Franco-German relations because of her proposal of a referendum on EU membership,” Peet said.
Macron is the compatible candidate with Germany and he will move in direction of the Eurozone reform and a hard Brexit, according to Hobolt.
The four speakers do not exclude the possibility for Madame Le Pen to win. They remember when the whole world thought that Trump would never become the president of the USA and that Brexit would never happen. They encourage young generations to draw lessons from these cases.
Christian Lequesne about the protest vote in France
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| Poll by PrésiTrack about the results of the first-round elections released at the LSE |
Europe elections and the rise of populism in 2017
In 2017 the Dutch general election and German federal election could plunge the EU into chaos as a wave of populism invades the continent.
Trump victory and the Brexit vote have emphasised a wave of anti-establishment sentiment that could see the Dutch and German elections won by right-wing populist parties.
The Dutch general election is on March 15th. Netherlands are called to vote between Geert Wilders, far-right leader of the Party for Freedom, and Mark Rutte, current Prime Minister of the Netherlands and leader of the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy.
Geert Wilders is currently on trial for hate speech and discrimination during the election rally in March 2014. He has vowed to confiscate Korans, close mosques and Islamic school, call a referendum on Dutch EU membership and to end immigration from Muslim countries.
The latest poll from Peil forecasts Wilders' Party for Freedom to win 33 out of 150 parliamentary seats, more than any other party. But he could face difficulties because the Netherlands relies on coalition government and more mainstream political parties could form a coalition to keep Wilders out of power.
In September there will be the German federal election. Germans are going to choose their Chancellor between Angela Merkel, who will run for a fourth term, and Frauke Petry, leader of the anti-EU Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The poll, for the Bild newspaper, put support for Merkel’s Christian Democrats on 31.5%, for the Social democrats just above 20% and for the AfD on 15%.
Angela Merkel is likely to return for a fourth term as Chancellor but her ruling coalition could lose seats because of her “open door” approach to the refugee crisis in the wake of Berlin truck attack last December.
Merkel’s victory would represent a continuation of the current status quo, while Petry’s victory would see the reintroduction of German border controls, strict sanctions on Muslims and a referendum on EU membership.
